A risk-based project schedule estimation method to improve project reliability

Abstract

This paper proposes a reliable project scheduling approach, which integrates the risk management and critical chain schedule analyses. Since various risks and uncertainties exist in a project which may not only prevent the project to be completed within budget and time limit, but also threaten the quality, safety and operational needs. In the proposed method the potential project risks are taken into account and risk response strategies are developed by fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and then varying effects of each risk over each activity. The project total time can then be quantified and simulated by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) as an effective technique in uncertain conditions due to its capability of converting uncertainty to risk judgmentally in projects. Following this procedure fault tree analysis and event tree analysis will be used to get risk mitigations. Eventually, for a reliable schedule we distribute a critical chain schedule which allows one to implement the project as planned and obtain reasonable feeding buffer time and project buffer time.