Pengaruh hujan monsun ke atas ramalan pasang surut di Utara Semenanjung Malaysia

Abstract

Peninsular Malaysia is surrounded by the sea, which brings on an important part of tidal research especially in the aspect of tidal prediction. Tidal phenomena has awesome characteristics, with lots of mysterious and knowledge which that requires a continuous research. Climate and meteorological factors always throw in some indistinctness result in tidal prediction. Sitting under the heavy rain fall circumstances, most of the states in Malaysia receive a lot of rains during monsoon seasons. In formal tides’ table, the effected value from this outer factor is unable to be stated clearly and precisely, but on the other hand, tidal prediction never takes meteorological factor into its calculation. A software named UTM-Tidal Analysis and Prediction Software (µ-TAPS) was developed in this research for tidal prediction of the monsoon period. Rain fall data during the monsoon and tides was acquired through out the same period. The tidal analysis and prediction result was compared and referred with the actual tidal data during the same period. The difference in value of the tidal height is around 0.5 m to 0.7m, which then taken into account in the follow up prediction. The prediction approach takes into account the astronomical constituents and also the shift of the monthly mean sea level. This is to derive a best fit tidal prediction which the result in a near compliance to the actual tidal level collected. The accuracy of the prediction improved up to 40% compare the conventional prediction. From this approach, tidal prediction on 2005 raining season at relevant location was improved. From the comparison of the tidal error base on rain falls, the research successfully introduced a new technique of tidal prediction especially for local monsoon seasons. It is hoped that the technique could be improved for future flood prediction activities.