Photovoltaic module temperature estimation model for the one-time-point daily estimation method.

Abstract

Based on the hourly solar radiation and ambient temperature, the hourly power estimation work is carried out using the conventional photovoltaic output power (PVOP) estimation model which is used in conjunction with the conventional photovoltaic module temperature (PVMT) estimation model. These hourly data must be processed further before they can be applied to the daily power estimation work. This estimation work is carried out using conventional estimation methods, which are the multiple estimation processes that are complex, time-consuming, and error prone. Therefore, to avoid these shortcomings, one estimation process is designed and used for daily power estimation work. However, this process produces an incorrect daily output power value due to an invalid module temperature value. Thus, a new PVMT estimation model is developed to solve the problem of the invalid value based on a simple linear regression analysis. The performance of the new model has been validated, giving a Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) value of 0.0215 and a Coefficient of Determination (R2) value of 0.9862. The correct daily output power value is produced with a valid module temperature value, giving a NRMSE value of 0.0034 and a R2 value of 0.9999. These results demonstrate the new model’s applicability and makes the one estimation process accurate, easy, user-friendly, instantaneous, and direct in daily power estimation work.