A Copula-based modelling of agro-climatic pattern in relation to durian production

Abstract

Climate change consequences have the potential to impact agricultural and food production systems significantly. A quantitative understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yield can help develop effective adaptation strategies. In order to assess the climatic contribution to crop yields, the relationship between crop yields and climate variables need to be evaluated. Using the copula-based model to generate a multivariate empirical distribution of crop yields and climatology information has not yet been studied on the seasonal crop. The proposed study aims to evaluate the drought impact on durian production in Pahang from 2000 to 2018. Agriculture drought indices are determined using Agriculture Rainfall Index (ARI), which provides a clear crop-water relationship for seasonal crop production. The result suggests that, in general, the joint behaviour of the minimum value of ARI and durian production exhibits a negative dependence. Moreover, the identified copula models in this study (i.e., frank, clayton, gaussian, t and Plackett copula) are spatially different. The estimated conditional probabilities of occurrence of crop loss are illustrated in the selected area and suggest that minimal drought is required for durian crop in other to increase production.