Prediction of ship collision risk on Singapore strait using AIS data.

Abstract

Straits of Melaka and straits of Singapore are one of the most congregated seaways in the world. These seaways are the main connection for the ships travel between western part and eastern part of the world. From statistical record, there were approximately 1500 vessels passing through the straits of Melaka and straits of Singapore daily. Ship to ship collision occurs frequently at these areas due to large amount of ships movement. To assess the risk of ship collision on the Straits of Melaka and Straits of Singapore, an AIS receiver station was setup by local researchers with the fund and support from Ocean and Aerospace Research Institute, Indonesia (OCARI). A computer software is also developed to decode the AIS signal received and to assess the risk profile of the traffic using Pedersen Method (1995). This self-developed decoder and analysis software is built under the assistance and guidance from Centre of Marine Technology and Engineering, Por-tugal (CENTEC). To obtain the risk of collision between ships, the software serves to calculate the number of collision candidates by considering the ship movement pattern, average ships speed in each course, ship course, distance between ships and principle dimensions of the ships which use the Straits of Melaka and straits of Singapore. Due to the complicated traffic flow in this region, this paper only focuses in discuss the expected number of collisions in the period of time for the head-on traffic and crossing traffic. To predict the expected number of collisions in the period of time, value of causation probability obtained from literature are used. Finally, this paper also presented the traffic pattern and expected number of collisions in the period of time on Straits of Melaka and straits of Singapore based on the AIS data received between September 2019 to October 2019.