An analysis of the determinants of office real estate price modelling in Nigeria: using a Delphi approach

Abstract

Purpose: There are a plethora of putative influencing variables available in the literature for modelling real estate prices using AI. Their choice tends to differ from one researcher to the other, consequently leading to subjectivity in the selection process. Thus, there is a need to seek the viewpoint of practitioners on the applicability and level of significance of these academically established variables. Design/methodology/approach: Using the Delphi technique, this study collated and structured the 35 underlying micro- and macroeconomic parameters derived from literature and eight variables suggested by 11 selected real estate experts. The experts ranked these variables in order of influence using a seven-point Likert scale with a reasonable consensus during the fourth round (Kendall's W = 0.7418). Findings: The study discovered that 16 variables are very influential with seven being extremely influential. These extremely influential variables include flexibility, adaptability of design, accessibility to the building, the size of office spaces, quality of construction, state of repairs, expected capital growth and proximity to volatile areas. Practical implications: The results of this study improve the quality of data available to valuers towards a fortified price prediction for investors, and thereby, restoring the valuers' credibility and integrity. Originality/value: The “volatility level of an area”, which was revealed as a distinct factor in the survey is used to add to current knowledge concerning office price. Hence, this study offers real estate practitioners and researchers valuable knowledge on the critical variables that must be considered in AI-based price modelling.