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Prediction of urban sprawl by integrating socioeconomic factors in the Batticaloa Municipal Council, Sri Lanka

Seevarethnam, Mathanraj and Rusli, Noradila and Hoh, Gabriel Teck Ling (2022) Prediction of urban sprawl by integrating socioeconomic factors in the Batticaloa Municipal Council, Sri Lanka. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 11 (8). pp. 1-21. ISSN 2220-9964

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11080442

Abstract

Due to extensive population growth, urbanization increases urban development and sprawl in the world’s cities. Urban sprawl is a socioeconomic phenomenon that has not extensively incorporated socioeconomic factors in the prediction of most of the urban sprawl models. This study aimed to predict the urban sprawl pattern in 2030 by integrating socioeconomic and biophysical factors. NDBI, Cramer’s V, logistic regression, and CA-Markov analyses were used to classify and predict built-up patterns. The built-up area is the dominant land use, which had a gradual growth from 1990 to 2020. A total of 20 socioeconomic and biophysical factors were identified as potentials in the municipality, affecting the urban sprawl. Policy regulation was the most attractive driver with a positive association, and land value had a high inverse association. Three prediction scenarios for urban sprawl were achieved for 2030. Higher sprawling growth is expected in scenario 3, compared with scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 3 was simulated with biophysical and socioeconomic factors. This study aids in addressing urban sprawl at different spatial and temporal scales and helps urban planners and decision makers enhance the development strategies in the municipality. Predicted maps with different scenarios can support evaluating future sprawling growth and be used to develop sustainable planning for the city.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:land use, socioeconomic factors, urban modeling
Subjects:H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races > HT101-395 Sociology, Urban
Divisions:Built Environment
ID Code:102742
Deposited By: Narimah Nawil
Deposited On:18 Sep 2023 04:21
Last Modified:18 Sep 2023 04:21

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